Review of rare earth from July 25 to July 29: the ups and downs are ultimately supply and demand, and the ups and downs alternate only in one week

At the beginning of the week, various rare earth products represented by praseodymium and neodymium began to rise rapidly. Due to the increase of downstream magnetic materials that just needed replenishment, traders began to be active, and the price of raw materials, especially sludge, began to rebound significantly, which affected all ends of the industrial chain to start to rise, testing. Praseodymium and neodymium products increased by about 0.5 yuan / ton per day for two consecutive days, and terbium products increased by 50000 yuan / ton per day. At the same time, it also led to the continuous rise of gadolinium and holmium products, and dysprosium, a heavy rare earth product, remained stable.

With the continuous upward movement of the prices of all series of products, the fear of high prices and wait-and-see mood gradually became strong, and the inquiry was deadlocked. Traders and small factories took the lead in shipping at high prices. Some large factories also began to reduce the price concessions under pressure. The transaction prices of praseodymium, neodymium and gadolinium began to decline on Wednesday afternoon, and the subsequent decline increased. Heavy rare earth dysprosium and terbium remained or remained on the sidelines. Although terbium products lost the linkage of the rise of praseodymium and neodymium, and the rise slowed down, the industry still had high expectations for its report.

Most people in the industry have compared this round of decline and rise with the trend of domestic resumption of production in April. In fact, there is no comparability, but the export demand has also not significantly improved from the Customs Statistics in June. This week, there were few factors to boost the rise. The upward trend of praseodymium and neodymium created by the tightening of spot is a short-term market. When the demand is released for a short time, the downward trend of price is inevitable. At present, orders and high temperatures have increased the number of midstream and even downstream enterprises entering shutdown and overhaul. In the short term, under the weak market, the impact on the market will not be too great.

Next week's forecast: Although most of the major praseodymium and neodymium manufacturers still maintain stable quotations this week, the decline caused by too fast growth and weak demand is inevitable. On the whole, this is finally consistent with the previous forecast that the growth rate will slow down and stabilize. It is true that praseodymium and neodymium may decline for a period of time, but the improvement of demand does exist, and the decline is expected to slow down gradually, but the bearish factor still has a certain impact on praseodymium and neodymium, and the medium-term weak risk is still there. Gadolinium and holmium products lag behind praseodymium and neodymium in the same trend adjustment. Dysprosium products are currently in large inventory, with a high probability of maintaining a stable level, and even if there is shipment, it will maintain a small fluctuation. The positive effect of terbium products is still greater than the negative effect. Even if praseodymium and neodymium decline, the supply increase is limited. The positive factors will continue to support the upward trend of terbium products, but its rise is more likely to slow down.