Reconstruction of supply and demand logic of "industrial vitamins" magnetic material factory had sufficient orders in the fourth quarter

According to Baotou rare earth products exchange, within 8 minutes of the opening of the 84th special bidding of northern rare earth, a total of 20 tons of metal praseodymium and neodymium of the four targets reached the alarm price, with a transaction price of 930000 yuan / ton. In early November, the auction transaction price of metal praseodymium and neodymium was 873000 yuan / ton, with a cumulative increase of 7% during the period. The November listing price of northern rare earth shows that the quotation of praseodymium and neodymium oxide is 762600 yuan / ton, up about 22% from the previous month. The quotation of metal praseodymium and neodymium is 930000 yuan / ton, up about 22% from last month. The listing prices of neodymium and neodymium oxide also increased significantly by more than 20% compared with the previous month. According to the market spot quotation, at present, praseodymium neodymium oxide has exceeded the new high in the past 10 years.

The market inventory decreased and the magnetic material factory had sufficient orders on hand

Industry insiders said that the fourth quarter is the traditional peak season for the downstream demand of rare earths. The demand for replenishment in downstream industries such as new energy vehicles is strong, boosting the demand for high-performance Nd-Fe-B, and then pushing up the demand for rare earths in the upstream. In terms of supply, due to the influence of limited power and other factors, the domestic rare earth output has declined, and the overseas epidemic has also affected the supply of rare earth mines in Myanmar. The fundamentals of supply and demand are expected to continue to support the price of rare earth.

Analysts said that under the influence of the epidemic, Myanmar's mine customs clearance was blocked, pushing up the prices of dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide. NdFeB permanent magnet materials are the main demand growth direction, and this year's demand is mainly driven by terminal industries such as new energy vehicles and wind turbines.

"In October and November, the new energy vehicle industry had a good demand for magnetic material preparation, and the magnetic material factories had sufficient orders. In terms of wind power, due to the large increase in the price of praseodymium and neodymium metal and the increase in capital pressure, the upstream magnetic material factories received less orders." the analyst said, "The price of praseodymium and neodymium metal is temporarily stable this week, with multidimensional holding at 950000-960000 yuan / ton. The enterprise quotation mostly refers to the transaction situation of Baotou rare earth exchange and the listing price of northern rare earth, and the market sentiment is also relatively stable."

By the end of October, the inventory of praseodymium and neodymium oxide factories in China was 2719 tons, a decrease of 6% over the previous month and 45% year-on-year, which was at a low level in recent two years.

Rare earth may realize the reconstruction of valuation system

Looking forward to the future, Northeast Securities believes that the increment of rare earth supply side is expected to be limited in the next few years. In terms of demand, benefiting from the large demand of industries such as new energy vehicles, the industry may maintain a state of short supply, which will support the continuous upward movement of rare earth price center. In the long run, rare earth is expected to repeat the logic of high growth in lithium cobalt new energy demand in history, and is expected to realize the reconstruction of valuation system.