The world is scrambling for new rare earth supplies

Despite the global supply shortage, rare earth prices are still falling.

Now, more than ever, countries are frantically looking for ways to reduce their dependence on rare earth metals.

After Turkey reported that it had discovered the world's second largest rare earth metal reserves, all eyes were on Turkey.

The rare earth metal MMI (monthly metal miner index of rare earth metals) continued the decline in July and fell 2.8% again. This is a major move for rare earth prices and reinforces the subtle downward trend since April. Now, more than ever, countries are frantically looking for ways to separate their rare earth supplies from China.

Turkey's rare earth "big discovery" attracts worldwide attention

As early as July 7, Turkey announced the discovery of the world's second largest rare earth metal reserves. The site is located in Central Anatolia and has an estimated 694 million tons of rare earth reserves. This will make it only 106 million tons less than the Baiyun OBO copper mine in northern China. If this is true, it will mean a change in supply and may have a significant impact on rare earth prices. Of the 17 elements in the "rare earth" category, the plant to be established in Anatolia will produce 10. According to Fatih Donmez, the country's minister of energy and natural resources, Turkey will soon be able to process 570000 tons of rare earths per year. The pilot plant is expected to be put into operation by the end of 2022 and provide a large supply of rare earth metals.

Although the prospect of breaking China's pseudo monopoly on rare earths is very attractive, the quality of Anatolia's rare earth mines is still uncertain. According to Jon hykawy, President of stormrow capital, "in the mining industry, the old adage that 'grade is king' still holds. If the discovery in Turkey is huge but the grade is very low, then we usually call this material 'soil'."

There are also concerns about whether Turkey can meet the challenge of large-scale mining and refining. At present, the market is holding its breath.

Britain's 150 million pound rare earth plant has attracted criticism

Earlier this month, the rare earth company pensanna broke ground on its first rare earth processing plant in the UK. The project began as part of an overall strategy to weaken China's dominance of the rare earth market. According to the officials behind the 150 million pound facility, after Russia entered Ukraine, there was a renewed interest in the movement.

The British Secretary of state, Kwasi kwarong, has spent a lot of time reminding his European compatriots of the need to keep away from Chinese teachings. "As we seek to strengthen our energy security and domestic industrial resilience, key minerals will become more important," he said He later added that the strategy would also "enhance our resilience to market shocks and geopolitical events".

Nevertheless, a recent article in the Financial Times revealed that some industry experts were dissatisfied with the amount of disclosure of the project. For example, we know little about executive compensation, resource quality and the ability of the website to achieve the set goals. As of the time of writing, the plant is expected to produce 12500 tons of separated rare earths and 5% of global magnetic metals by 2024.

However, pensana's plan depends on the purchase of rare earth oxides from the longonjo plant in Angola, which has just broken ground. This fact is further complicated by concerns that the processing of Angolan ores will produce a large amount of thorium, which is radioactive. In short: the market is praying, but not entirely optimistic.

North America continues to stride towards rare earth independence

Last month, we extensively reported the US dependence on China's rare earth supply. A month ago, we contacted the rare earth production facility to be built in Stillwater, Oklahoma. At that time, this $100 million facility would create more than 100 jobs and help the United States achieve self-sufficiency. However, the nuclear power plant will not be put into operation until 2023. Depending on the people you ask, this period of time may be eternal.

Meanwhile, good news came from Canada. Vital metals, which has a rare earth extraction facility in Saskatchewan, recently announced some promising test results. The first feed of the field DMS (dense media separation) unit showed that its performance was comparable to the Treo level in the laboratory test work.

Treo grade refers to "total rare earth oxide". In essence, the extraction efficiency of vital metals' plant (43.7%) is very close to that under laboratory conditions (44.6%). During the test, the recovery rate of the device reached 75.2%. This bodes well for the capacity estimation of the website and the ability to produce high-quality products.

According to general manager Geoff Atkins, "in fact, in the first test, we achieved a total rare earth recovery of 75% with low-grade raw materials, which exceeded expectations." Of course, the plant plans to continue to optimize its processes. These results represent a real boost to the overall potential of the plant.

Industrial frontier

Please pay attention to a fact: according to the report of USGS (which began to track in the 1990s), China's rare earth production share increased from 0 to 97% in 2008-2009, and decreased to 60% in 2022. What does this mean?

——In the past 30 years, the supply pattern has not remained unchanged. This is a normal state.