Weekly market review (June 13-June 19)

The rare earth market performed poorly. In fact, the price of praseodymium and neodymium fluctuated slightly from the end of last week. With the fine adjustment of the listing price of rare earth in the north in June, most of the lower reaches were on the sidelines and delayed procurement. Even small and medium-sized magnetic material factories continued to make small purchases because their orders were less than expected. The bullish sentiment in the upper reaches was also temporarily stranded, and the shock correction in the rare earth market was dim and spread.

This week, the overall market changed from the previous trend of "two steps back one step", showing a small step back. Compared with the past, this week, the correction range of praseodymium and neodymium was relatively moderate, and the overall market did not show an obvious panic mentality. In addition, after the frequent rise and fall of traders' praseodymium and neodymium in May, at present, both the cost and inventory are strong enough to abandon the panic, and the separation plant, supported by the shortage of waste materials and high prices, The willingness to make profit for shipment is not strong. On the whole, the inner roll of praseodymium neodymium oxide is much more relaxed than before. Under the pressure of demand, the metal plant has a slight correction, but under the high cost, the range is not obvious.

Dysprosium and terbium were stable at the high level and significantly narrowed at the low level in the case of weaker transaction this week. Stimulated by various news in the early part of the week, dysprosium oxide showed signs of asking for more orders. Some trading enterprises even predicted that the price would return to 3million yuan / ton. However, in the overall weakening atmosphere, it was difficult to support the huge social inventory by buying goods from large manufacturers alone. Dysprosium returned to the low level during the weekend.

Compared with may, this week, the downstream confidence was generally insufficient, orders maintained production, and there were many disputes over the price and procurement of rare earth raw materials under the difficult increment. This week, the Federal Reserve officially offered a 75 basis point "violent" interest rate increase, the largest since 1994. The market's concern about economic decline has been rising sharply. Under the influence of the substantial interest rate increase of the US dollar, the global economy may enter a downward channel, The demand side of bulk commodities may fall back. This year, geopolitical conflicts have intensified energy tension, and the development prospect of the new energy industry is still high hopes.

Although the current pace of resumption of production is slow, the demand for downstream magnetic materials does not meet expectations, and it is difficult to reverse the market increment in the short term. The bearish mentality of downstream magnetic materials is generally strong. This week, the strategy of large upstream manufacturers has changed from the previous price hike to accompanying entry into the market, but the overall quotation is still stable. The listing price of northern rare earth is significantly lower than the market price, and the group also shows a strong willingness to control the market in terms of the price of the long-term association, Looking at the rise and fall of prices from the perspective of demand plays a crucial role in underpricing.

Future judgment: as for praseodymium and neodymium, which are relatively market-oriented products, in the process of price spiral rise, they constantly squeeze the foam, and the low cost is occupied. Therefore, even if the correction is made, the process must be relatively smooth. The small market circulation sources all affect the correction speed. Under the current supply and demand level, even if the correction is made in stages, the space may not be large. Dysprosium and terbium, after the low level narrowed and the high level stabilized this week, the market changed little. As previously analyzed, under the high concentration of inventory and the prominent oligopoly effect, the price fluctuation is relatively controllable. Swiss road analysis believes that this round of weak shocks will continue in the short term, but the overall market decline speed and space will not be too large.